Global Hazelnut Market Trends & Annual Production Insights

1. Türkiye’s role & global hazelnut supply share

As the world’s leading hazelnut producer, Türkiye accounts for approximately 60–70% of global supply annually. This dominant share makes Turkish output a critical factor in global price fluctuations, availability and long-term supply planning for industrial buyers worldwide.

• High proportion of supply comes from Black Sea region — impacting seasonal availability.
• Turkish harvest cycles significantly influence global hazelnut inventories and contract pricing.

Buyers sourcing from Türkiye — or indirectly through traders — often try to lock-in volumes early in the season to hedge against supply volatility.

2. Global demand growth drivers

Major factors pushing hazelnut demand worldwide include:

• Chocolate & confectionery expansion: rising global middle-class and premium trends.
• Plant-based foods & alternative dairy: use of hazelnut paste, flour and oil in dairy-free creams, nut milks and spreads.
• Health & nutrition trend: nuts regarded as healthier fat/protein sources, boosting meal, flour and oil demand.
• Snack & bakery premiumization: hazelnut inclusion in bakery, cereals, granola, energy bars.

Additionally, demand for convenient formats (blanched kernels, chopped, roasted, paste, meal/flour) is rising due to shorter manufacturing times and clean-label expectations.

3. Seasonal volatility & crop cycles

Typical annual cycle

• Harvest (Aug–Sep): main acquisition window, highest availability.
• Processing & export (Sep–Mar): main shipping period, stable supply.
• Off-season (Apr–Jul): reduced availability, higher old-crop prices, possible stricter specifications.

Crop yield depends heavily on weather conditions. Adverse spring or summer climates can reduce output and trigger global price spikes.

4. Key price drivers in the hazelnut market

Several variables influence hazelnut prices globally:

• Harvest volume and yield quality
• Global demand growth (especially confectionery & plant-based segments)
• Currency fluctuations (TRY exchange rate) for Turkish origin
• Quality parameters (caliber, defects, aflatoxin testing, certificate status)
• Logistics & shipping costs
• Supply chain disruptions (weather, crop disease, export regulations)

Industrial buyers often negotiate multi-year contracts or forward purchase agreements to mitigate price volatility.

5. Supply risk factors & what to monitor

Hazelnut supply remains vulnerable to multiple risk factors:

• Climate risks: drought, delayed rainfall, storm damage or unseasonal weather during flowering or harvest.
• Crop diseases & pests: which can reduce yield or increase defect rates.
• Currency volatility: significantly affects Turkish-origin cost economics.
• Export & phytosanitary regulations: changing import rules in destination markets.
• Global demand surges: sudden spikes from food trends may outpace harvest capacity.

Buyers are advised to maintain diversified sourcing strategies, build buffer stocks, and include specification flexibility in contracts.

6. Forecast: what to expect in the coming years (2025–2030)

Based on current trends, the following developments are likely:

• Incremental growth in demand for hazelnut-derived ingredients (paste, flour, oil) for plant-based & functional foods.
• Greater demand for quality-certified hazelnuts (organic, traceable, low-defect, aflatoxin-tested).
• Potential consolidation among processors to meet large-scale demand and compliance requirements.
• Price stabilization efforts by producer co-ops to support sustainable yield and fair trade.

Buyers focusing on long-term supply relationships and transparent sourcing are expected to have a competitive advantage.

Want a customized hazelnut sourcing forecast & supply plan?

Share your annual volume and product mix. We can propose a tailored sourcing plan aligned with market forecast and risk management.

Request a quote Back to Academy